２０１０年の米証券大手の投資観測を羅列する

まとめ。
為替は、ＧＳ・モルスタが円安主張。ＪＰは米ドルの方がむしろ弱含むとの見方だ。
株式・債券について言えば、新興国関連をざっとあさっとけというのが共通意見。モルスタは円安後押しによる日本の輸出業復活を予想している。

http://pragcap.com/goldmans-top-trades-for-2010 ＧＳ

Trade #1: Short volatility
Top trade #2: Long Russia
Top trade #3: Short NZD/Long GBP
Top trade #4: Pay 2-yr UK Rates vs. Australia 1-yr Forward at -268.5bp, target -150bp
Top trade #5: CDS convergence between Spain and Ireland -
Top trade #6: buy the currency growth basket
（The FX Growth Current currently contains long positions in INR, IDR, CNY, AUD, PLN, PHP and short positions in MXN, RUB, TRY, TWD, HUF, MYR）
Top trade #7: Long PLN/short JPY The Yen on the other hand is significantly overvalued. Goldman sees the poor fiscal condition in Japan and government intervention capping upside on the Yen.

http://pragcap.com/jp-morgans-top-10-trades-of-2010　ＪＰモルガン
(1) long EM equities;
(2) short USD versus EM FX;
(3) short USD versus EUR and JPY in 1H;　
(4) short US agencies and MBS outright;　
(5) long US HY outright;　
(6) overweight US HG and EM external debt versus USTs;
(7) long EM corporate credit;
(8) overweight cyclicals within equities;
(9) long lower-tier II bank bonds outright and versus government debt;
(10) long AAA CMBS/RMBS and A-rated CLOs.

http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanleys-ten-trades-for-2010-2009-12　モルガンスタンレー
１　Overweight Equities vs. Credit vs. Government Bonds
２　Overweight Large Cap Growth (QARP – Quality at a Reasonable Price)
３　Overweight Non-Ferrous vs. Ferrous Commodity Equities / Overweight Agri Chemicals
４　Overweight Global Tobacco – Japan, US & Europe
（In 2010 global tobacco manufacturers should benefit from the carryover of 2009’s significant price increases）
５　Overweight Japanese Industrials & Exporters
（A weaker yen should translate into a better outlook for Japanese equities）
６　Buy Euro Pharma over US Pharma
７　Overweight Consumer Non- Cyclical vs. Cyclical (Staples over Discretionary)
８　Overweight US Large vs. Small Caps
９　Overweight Global Autos/Auto Components
（We like growth names in the auto space with significant or rising EM exposure ）
１０　Underweight Financials – (European & UK)

欲を言えば元になるレポートを見てみたい。